ST. LOUIS — “Your church is probably not growing—and that’s OK,” Dr. Ryan Burge told participants during a Tuesday morning Leadership Conversation at the 2025 General Assembly of the Cooperative Baptist Fellowship in St. Louis.
Burge, an associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University and ordained American Baptist pastor, led a session focused on church growth, demographic trends and the challenges facing pastors in 2025. The session included data presentation, table discussions, and Q&A.
“I am the least successful pastor,” Burge said early in the session, describing his own experience with small churches that eventually closed. “A lot of what I do in my statistical work is just trying to make myself feel a little bit better about myself, and hopefully you all can come along on the journey.”
Burge encouraged attendees to take seriously the broader factors that influence congregational life.
“You are inside a box,” he said. “That box is defined by things that were happening long before you and will continue long after you’re dead. The quicker you realize what that box looks like, the better off you’re going to be.”
He shared data showing that 60 percent of America’s fastest-growing churches are located in the 13 percent of counties that saw population growth of at least 10 percent between 2010 and 2020. Only 7 percent are in counties that lost population.
“It’s not magic; it’s math,” Burge said. “Fast-growing churches are in fast-growing, highly educated suburbs.”
He also discussed the rise of religiously unaffiliated Americans—often referred to as “nones.”
“If you put five ‘nones’ in a room, one’s an atheist, one’s an agnostic and three are nothing in particular,” Burge said.
Still, Burge cautioned against measuring ministry by growth alone. “If your church isn’t growing, it’s not all your fault. And if it is, it’s not all your doing either,” he said. “God called you to be faithful, not successful.”
He acknowledged the difficulty of leading churches in a time of decline. “There are literally tens of thousands of pastors in the trenches every week, going to churches that are smaller than they were five years ago with fewer resources. God sees you.”
The session included several table discussions and opportunities for participants to write reflections and questions on notecards. In response to a question about church names and denominational identity, Burge said, “If those churches are denominational, they’re not being clear about that. It’s ‘The Journey,’ ‘The Ramp’—sometimes you don’t know if it’s a church or a weed shop!”
As the session closed, Burge offered a few practical suggestions:
- Name your headwinds and tailwinds. “Is your county growing? Are you in a college-educated zip code? Those are tailwinds. Aging membership and stagnant population are headwinds. Know them.”
- Measure what matters. “Being a pastor isn’t about widgets. Figure out what faithfulness looks like in your box.”
- Tell better stories. “Have you heard that the civil-rights movement was driven by people of faith? We need to recover those narratives.”
He also shared a QR code linking to his slides and invited attendees to subscribe to his newsletter. In closing, Burge referenced a quote from Count Zinzendorf: “Preach the gospel, die and be forgotten.” He added, “Whether your sanctuary seats a hundred thousand or two, your job is to do your job.”
The session helped attendees reflect on the limits and possibilities of ministry today. “Your ministry matters even if the numbers don’t show it,” Burge said.
The 2025 CBF General Assembly continues this week in St. Louis. Learn more at www.cbf.net/assembly.